By David  Nkedianye

The future of Pastoralism in Africa will depend on a number of key factors that are social-cultural, biophysical, economic and policy-related in nature within local and international confines. Within countries, policies to mitigate climate change, ensure mobility, and protect and encourage sustainable and profitable use of pastoral lands will be a key stepping stone upon which international statutes can be developed. The problem and magnitude of climate change will to a greater extend determine the frequency and severity of droughts in the drylands which will in turn dictate the levels of poverty, pastoral drop-out rates and subsequent recovery periods.

Land tenure and use policies within and across countries will drive rates of land fragmentation, influence pastoral mobility and in turn help mitigate or accentuate the effects of droughts and other extreme weather conditions.

The absence of appropriate land tenure and use policies, demographic pressure, growing rural-urban migration, insecurity and lack of a cross-border migration framework are some of the key issues to be tackled soon if pastoralism is to survive into the future. Lessons from Southern Kenya indicate that trends in land fragmentation and radical policies on land use have been difficult to change and that going by the current rates and direction, pastoralism is headed for harder times in the future. Concerted efforts at national and international levels will be inevitable if the lifespan of pastoralism is to be sustainably and profitably extended into the future.