By Ericksen, P., Thornton, P.K., Ayantunde, A., Herrero, M., Said, M., de Leeuw, J.

Managing climate variability and climate risk is at the heart of pastoralism. The consequences and implications of climate change are therefore of paramount importance to pastoral livelihoods, productions systems and landscapes. This paper explores what we do and don’t know about how climate change will unfold in pastoral areas of sub-Saharan Africa. We first review pastoral climate risk management strategies in a changing economic and political context. Second we present downscaled climate projections out to 2050, under several different scenarios of temperature increase. The interpretation of as well as the uncertainties in these projections will be explained. Thirdly we present evidence on how climate change might affect pastoral systems through changes in vegetation, frequency of drought, and livelihood transitions in marginal cropping areas. A number of unanswered questions will also be raised to point out key gaps in knowledge. The final section will discuss the importance of adaptation strategies at local as well as higher governance levels to the ultimate future consequences and implications of climate change for the future of pastoralism