Full title: The 2011 Surplus in Smallholder Maize Production in Zambia: Drivers, Beneficiaries, and Implications for Agricultural and Poverty Reduction Policies

Nicole M. Mason, William J. Burke, Arthur Shipekesa, and T. S. Jayne

In 2011, Zambia recorded its second consecutive record-breaking maize harvest, and aggregate maize production levels in 2011 were more than double the average level from 2006 to 2008. The expansion in maize production over the period corresponds with thescaling up of the Government of the Republic of Zambia’s (GRZ) two flagship agricultural sector programmes. These are: (i) maize purchases at pan-territorial, above-market prices through the Food Reserve Agency (FRA); and (ii) subsidized fertilizer distribution through the Fertilizer Support Programme and its successor, the Farmer Input Support Programme (FSP/FISP). More than 90% of GRZ funding for Poverty Reduction Programmes is devoted to the FRA and FSP/FISP, yet there has been no major reduction in rural poverty rates in Zambia since 2004.

In this paper, we analyze the extent to which FRA activities, GRZ fertilizer subsidies, and other factors are responsible for the increase in smallholder maize production between the 2006-2008 baseline and 2011, and attempt to resolve the apparent paradox of a doubling of maize output with no discernible impact on rural poverty.