Report Number 2
Pastoral Economic Growth and Development Policy Assessment, Ethiopia

By Peter D. Little, Roy Behnke, John McPeak, and Getachew Gebru

This report is the second in a series of papers that examine pastoral economies and development in Ethiopia. It starts with the premise that the government has an important role in promoting a positive view of pastoral economies and development to counter the very strong under-appreciation of the economic contributions of pastoralism. We believe that this lack of acknowledgement, in part, is based on misperceptions and a lack of understanding about the sector‘s important contributions to Ethiopia‘s national economy and development. In this report we address possible future scenarios for pastoral economies and pastoralism over the next 15-20 years and highlight four key contested areas that need to be resolved: (1) irrigation and other land uses versus pastoralism; (2) land tenure and the importance of mobility and flexibility; (3) settlement and the issues associated with pastoral sedentarization; and (4) trade and especially the question of overseas export versus regional/unofficial cross-border and domestic marketing. We start our analysis with two very different future narratives about pastoralism. One is that of a vibrant and growing pastoral economy that contributes to local and national welfare and economies, supports a range of different market options, builds conflict resolution mechanisms between government and local communities, secures pastoral land rights and mobility, and provides economic options for those exiting pastoralism. The second is that of a depressed and unviable pastoral sector that depends on food aid, aggravates existing conflicts, results in higher national consumer prices for animal products, and leads to steep declines in foreign trade earnings. Which of these two narratives–or elements of them—will hold true for the future largely depends on government policy and on the growth of other sectors of the national economy.